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Record Oil Prices

T. Boone Pickens Says It's Headed to $125

By Ian Cooper
Saturday, April 19th, 2008

Think $115 oil prices, and $3.40 U.S. pump prices are hard on your wallet? Just wait until we reach T. Boone Pickens' projected rise to $125 a barrel.

Quintupling in price since 2002, oil hit a new record of $115.54 on Thursday, and is likely headed higher, thanks to soaring emerging market demand.

And, despite new production from Canadian oil sands and elsewhere, Pickens believes that global oil production is unlikely to rise above the current 85 million barrels a day, "while global demand will likely hit 87 million bpd in the third quarter of 2008."

This is a 180 from earlier Pickens predictions for falling oil prices. He quickly changed his forecast after his hedge fund lost 20% of its value in the first quarter of 2008.

The outlook is dreary... But there are solutions.

One of the solutions is to dig for oil here in the United States. We've told you about Bakken.

But for those of you that missed that discussion, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published an official study on the Bakken reserve, finding:

Up to 4.3 billion barrels of oil could be recovered from the Bakken shale formation — a 25-fold increase compared to its initial assessment in 1995.

The Bakken is the largest "continuous" oil accumulation ever assessed by the USGS.

This comes after a 2006 report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which stated, "A study provides estimates ranging up to 503 billion barrels of potential resources in place."

According to the EIA, the success of horizontal drilling and fracturing efforts in Montana is the reason a decision was made to re-evaluate the 1995 USGS Assessment of Resources, which put estimates of technically recoverable oil from the Bakken Formation at only 151 million barrels.

The Bakken oil formation lies in the "Williston Basin," a geological formation in the north central U.S., underlying much of North Dakota, eastern Montana, northwestern South Dakota, and southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada. The $20 Trillion Report is recommending three trades on the Bakken potential.

The other solution, which Pickens supports, is wind energy.

Reportedly, the billionaire will make his first down payment on 500 wind turbines at a cost of $2 million apiece. It's his first step towards his goal of building the world's biggest wind farm.

And, over the next four years, he plans to build another 2,700 turbines over 200,000 acres of the Texas panhandle, which could supply 4,000 megawatts of electricity.

That's enough to power a million homes.

But don't think he's turned green just yet. He's just interested in what'll make money. A lot of it... "I've been hunting quail for 50 years, I know where the wind is," Pickens told The Guardian.

Smart move... Pickens further believes that "Oil fields have a declining curve - you find one, it peaks and starts downhill, you've got to find another one to replace it. It drives you crazy! With wind, there's no decline."

"You need a giant plan for America," he says to The Guardian. "Not the pissant 83 megawatt [windfarm] deals being stamped all over the country. There needs to be a huge plan from someone with leadership. It's going to take years to do, but it has to start now."

Fortunately, the editors of SC Trading Pit are familiar with the potential as well...

Says Brian Hicks:

"We simply cannot ignore about the wind energy market is its growth during 2007. Last year, a record-breaking 20,000 megawatts (MW) of wind power were installed around the world. That means that wind energy supplied approximately 94,000 MW of energy. In other words, that's a growth of around $36 billion.

Let's put this into perspective...

Between 2005 and 2007, both Germany and Spain's wind power capacity experienced impressive growth (about 21% and 51%, respectively). Now look back at the U.S. growth.
Our capacity catapulted nearly 84%!

Don't think for a second that wind energy is about slow down...

Since 2000, wind power production has increased fivefold. Remember that during that period, oil prices have grown nearly the amount. Now that a peak oil is starting to get under the global spotlight, we can expect to see a massive interest in renewables like wind energy.

I've personally read reports from the U.S. Department of Energy stating that wind energy supplied in just three U.S. states could potentially power the entire nation!

Think about it for a minute.

We're talking about a source of energy that is a renewable, clean, has a low operating cost and has technology that's been around for over century (the first power producing windmill was created back in 1887).

But it isn't just the past growth that we're impressed with. Over the next two years, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) predicts that the world's installed wind power capacity will practically double to 149.5 GW. If you notice, the installed capacity in 2007 was 94,000 MW-which was higher than originally forecasted!"

While there are publicly traded wind energy stocks out there, Brian recommended a $2 wind stock on February 21, 2008 that has since rallied to $3 in SC Trading Pit with near-term $5 potential.

That's it for this week... Have a great weekend.

Take care,

Ian L. Cooper

—————

And, in case you missed our other investment opportunity highlights, here's what we covered in Wealth Daily, Gold World, Energy and Capital, and your free blogs for the week of April 14, 2008.

Commodities Soar as Stocks Sink: How to Recession-Proof Your Portfolio
Last week, I wrote about the skyrocketing cost of food and why it makes agricultural commodities an attractive sector for investors. Since then, the headlines have been blaring about riots and violence around the world over the prices of rice and other staples, says Chris Nelder.

Canadian Oil Stocks: Investors Can't Lose in this Oil War
Judging from the wide range of emails from readers over the last few weeks, it appears that you fall into one of several camps when it comes to record oil prices. Some of you focus solely on how the U.S. dollar is in a downward spiral. Others, however, insist that we've run out of cheap oil. Oil producers are struggling just to keep production flat.

Anavex Biotech Stock: The Next Blockbuster in Biotech
"Behind every story is a Greek man." That was Dr. Khan's response when I asked her why she left the prominent biotechnology industry in England to join Anavex Life Sciences in Greece. Indeed, she was right. The man behind the Anavex story is Dr. Alexandre Vamvakides. And when it comes to biotechnology research and reputation, he's a giant among his peers.

Wholesale Prices Soaring: Food and energy costs lead wholesale prices to soar in March
Inflation at the wholesale level soared in March at nearly triple the rate that had been expected as the costs of energy and food both climbed rapidly. The Labor Department reported today that wholesale prices rose by 1.1% last month, the largest increase since a 2.6% rise last November, which had been the biggest one-month jump in 33 years.

WaMu's Fairy Tale Appraisals: The Tip of the Iceberg in Fraud
Now that the housing bubble has gone down as quickly as ill-fated Hindenburg, what made all of that "appreciation" so illusory is now being slowly exposed. And while most of the Monday morning quarterbacking has focused primarily on the idiocy of the loan programs that are blowing up in the faces of the banks that made them, an important leg of process has gone largely under the radar.

Homebuyers say "No Thanks, We're Full": Appetite for Homes Dwindles
Despite the incoherent rants of the National Association of Realtors, the spring selling season has largely go on without so much as peep from buyer's camp. By all accounts, they're full.

Global Food Riots: How to Play the Food Price Crisis
When World Bank head Robert Zoellick sounded the alarm Sunday about global food riots, he also confirmed one of the biggest bull rallies of our age. Zoellick told reporters Sunday that we as an international community have to "put our money where our mouth is."

Investing in Silicon Suppliers: The Secret Side of Solar, Part Two
In part one, we discussed investing in silicon suppliers, with respect to large companies that supply silicon—as a large part of their business—to the solar manufacturing industry. This week, as promised, we'll take a look at some of the new silicon suppliers that have entered and will be entering the market, as well as the solar companies that are bringing part of the silicon supply chain in-house.






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Comments:

Comment by jeffrey on 2008-04-22
Boone Pickens is doing us a great favor to try to prove that windmills can provide needed energy to supplant future oil and gas depletion, instead of going to nuclear energy. I myself am betting that three nuclear reactors can provide the same power at one third the cost of windmill energy. I do not see that 2700 windmills can provide 4000MWe averaged over a year. Assuming that 2 MWe windmills are used (@ $3 million each), and with 20% of averaged yearly available wind, 10,000 windmills would be needed to provide an average of 4000 MWe during a year. In addition auxiliary electric batteries are neeed (@ $200,000 per windmill) to store energy when the wind does not blow. A 4000 MWe windmill installation with 10,000 windmills on 50,000 acres (including maintenance access roads), would have a capital equipment cost of $32 billion. This compares to $9 billion for three 1400 MWe nuclear reactors whose power output is easily controlled by man compared to fickle windpower.

We have not even considered here the enormous (windy) acreage that is needed and the maintenanace costs of keeping 10,000 windmills operating smoothly free of dead birds. The ecological damage and spoilage of scenery are also ignored.

Pickens would do the electric power community a great favor if he could show the superioriiy of wind-power over nuclear power. Such an actual demonstration instead of lots of windy hype is badly needed.
Comment by Ivan Hills on 2008-04-20
So, according to one story Gull has oodles of light sweet crude and it's all drilled and ready to go -- but capped awaiting even higher prices. True? Or not?
Comment by Hans R Herren on 2008-04-20
I would like to suggest that anyone interested in the causes of the food security problems and the options for actions read the latest report, which has just been made public on april 15th from the International assessment of agricultural Science and Technology for Development. This assessment has analyzed how Knowledge, Science and Technology have influenced where we are today in terms of food production and what needs to be done to meet the hunger, poverty, rural livelihoods and inequity, nutrition and health and the environmental degradation challenges in the face of a growing population, upgraded diet, climate change, water shortages over the next 50 years.

The food riots of the last days will be remembered as minor in a few years if one does not address the social aspects linked to agriculture and food security. The productivity will have to be further increased...BUT in a sustainable manner. More important, since we do produce excess food today and waist a good 25% will be to assure that all people have access to food and also to the production assets. In the end its poverty that is at the bases of todays riots. The poor are again paying with their lives, since they have no money by definition, for the profits of speculators and people that drive SUV powered with corn based ethanol!

The report calls for a paradigm shift in ag science and tech for to meet the enormous challenges ahead. But that wont suffice, there will be a need to think much more in system and also that resources are limited, no matter how much technology we can line up. Trade regimes will have to be adjusted to give a fair chance to the developing countries to develop their agriculture and the value adding process that will pull people out of poverty. Food as a hunan right should not be treated like a commodity and played around with by speculators, who are responsible for the large price increases that has made the most basic food stuff beyond the reach of the poor. We all live in one world, where the resources are to be equality shared among all. These resources are also to be managed sustainably for the next generations.

I hope that the IAASTD report will be heeded by action form policy makers to set agricultural research and development back into the top priority of the public sector agenda. Failure to do so will be sorely paid for in a few years down the road. After all agriculture is and was the ground on which the economies of the industrialized grew, it would be unwise to pull the carpet under agriculture's feet, even in the developed countries, that still need food to fuel the people (not the SUVs please).

Dr. Hans R Herren Co-Chair IAASTD and 1995 World Food Prize Laureate

Comment by Hans R Herren on 2008-04-20
..sorry, here the url for the IAASTD report I mention in y earlier comment:

http://www.agassessment.org/
Comment by Erhard Fick on 2008-04-20
Wind Power has its place but why don't commentators mention ocean power.

Companies such as Ocean Power Technologies Inc (listed on the Nasdaq)may soon make wind power look dated.

T.Boone Pickens take note!